Assessment of sea level rise impact on population and land use in the Mediterranean coast of Turkey

Abstract

In this research, physical and socio-economical effects of sea-level rise were analyzed and simulated based on a series of land elevations for the years 2000 to 2100 respect to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study area, Cukurova delta coastal zone is located on the south-eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey which lies 110 km long from east to west and represents an internationally important coastal ecosystem. In order to evaluate the land vulnerability due to sea level rise, digital elevation and geographical information system
(GIS) data model, socio-economic data, natural neighbour interpolation algorithm and basic GIS methods were used. Model analyses showed us the area between 0 and 3 m contour line which is totally 101.399 ha coast lands will be lost under the accepted scenarios which comprise
35.430 ha wetlands, 32.393 ha agricultural land, 13.202 ha pasture, 4.351 ha sand dune, 3.368 ha salt marshes – swamp, 295 ha settlements river, road etc.